Private equity firms don’t get second chances at a first look. Whether evaluating a financial services platform, a call center-based business, or a SaaS company, the window to uncover meaningful patterns is short—and the data rarely arrives clean. Oh, and you have five other deals on your plate.

Dark Sky Data helps deal teams move faster and dig deeper. Upload raw files, pick the columns in Excel that you want to filter on, and instantly generate the insights that usually take 20+ hours to build. You do not need to build a model from scratch.

• Experience Curves show when events happen—like cancellations, churn, or claims
• Balance Curves track how loans paydown or receivables increase —by cohort, by product, over time
• Response Curves reveal how fast leads respond to outreach or buy, if not a first-call close

These tools were built by an investment banker, designed specifically to give deal teams clarity under pressure—no code, no complexity, no delay.

And your data stays secure—we never store, retain, or reuse it.

For private equity firms, Balance Curves offer a fast, flexible way to validate performance claims during diligence or monitor cash flow dynamics post-close. From equipment leases to installment contracts, wealth accounts to payment plans, the curve shows how value is created—or depleted—month by month.

Use it to spot inconsistent trajectories, uncover revenue momentum, or compare cohort behavior across time—without building a model from scratch.

No code. No rework. Just speed and clarity.

Minimum required columns:

• Fund Date
• Original Balance ($)
• Periodic Balances
• Term (in months)
• Date of Data Download

Have more fields? Great. Filter by anything: Vintage, Agent, Industry, Channel, State—and more.

From static spreadsheets to side-by-side insight—in seconds.

• Are balances actually building the way the target claims?
• How quickly does cash come in—and when does it slow down?
• Which cohorts are paying down faster—or lagging behind?
• Is AUM growing consistently across client vintages?
• Do some geographies, products, or agents show stronger momentum?
• Are there early warning signs in revenue or repayment trends?

If it’s in the data room, it’s on your screen—instantly.

Validate cancellations. Evaluate the frequency of claims. Uncover timing risks. In seconds.Experience Curves let deal teams create Cancellation Curves and other event timelines directly from raw contract or customer data—aligned by start date and normalized across cohorts. Instead of relying on anecdotes or static snapshots, you can measure exactly when cancellations, defaults, or prepayments occur—and filter by agent, geography, channel, or product.

In diligence, this means fast answers to critical questions: Are Month 6 cancellations spiking? Do certain vendors drive higher early churn? Is behavior shifting over time?Experience Curves also work for churn, prepayments, delinquencies, and usage trends—revealing hidden patterns that influence risk, retention, and performance across your target.

Built for acquisition diligence. Designed by an investment banker.

Minimum required columns:

• Fund Date
• Event Date (e.g., Cancellation, Default, Prepayment, Churn)
• Event Value (optional)
• Term (in months)
• Date of Data Download

Have more fields? Perfect. Filter by anything: Vendor, Product Type, Channel, Geography, Agent—and more.

From timelines to truths—in seconds.

• What is the cancellation rate?
• How have recent vintages performed?
• Are cancellations actually improving—or just offset by recent growth?
• Do certain vendors, agents, or terms show early signs of churn?
• When do key events—defaults, prepayments, cancellations—typically occur?
• Are longer-term contracts truly stable—or just delaying risk?
• Which cohorts are underperforming—and how early can we tell?
• Are event timelines consistent across product lines and geographies?

If it happened in the data, we’ll help you see when—and why—it matters.

USE EXPERIENCE CURVES FOR

Use Case	Example Industries
Cancellation Pattern Detection	Vehicle Service Contracts, Home Warranty, Insurance
Delinquency & Default Timing	Consumer Finance, Equipment Leasing, Auto Lending
Churn Timing and Cohort Risk	Subscription Businesses, EdTech, Legal Services
Refund Liability Forecasting	Extended Warranty, Insurance, Membership Plans
Contract Event Benchmarking	Telecom, Home Security, Health Memberships
Revenue Recognition Support	SaaS, Compliance Services, Retainer-Based Firms

Marketing Response Curves turn raw contact and response data into intuitive timelines that reveal when inbound leads actually arrive—day by day, from the moment a campaign is launched.

For private equity firms evaluating marketing-led businesses, this tool makes it easy to validate response velocity, compare partner performance, and assess campaign efficiency without building a custom model.

Use it in diligence to confirm management’s claims on response timing, A/B results, or call center readiness—or post-close to optimize spend across vendors and creatives.

View results by days since mail or digital drop, broken out by product, geography, campaign, source, or any field in your file.

Minimum required columns:

• Mail Date
• Response Date
• Date of Data Download

Have more fields? Perfect. Filter by Campaign, State, Channel, Mail Type, Partner, and more.

From raw leads to response insight—fast.

• Are response patterns consistent with what the Target claims?
• How quickly do prospects respond after a campaign launches?
• Do different mailers or creatives generate faster inbound volume?
• Which list sources, regions, or channels produce higher engagement?
• Are A/B test results statistically meaningful—or noise?
• Can the business reliably staff reps based on predicted response curves?

If it’s in the file, we’ll help you see it—clearly and instantly.

USE MARKETING RESPONSE CURVES FOR

Use Case	Example Industries
Response Timing Validation	Direct Mail Lead Gen, Insurance, Warranty
A/B Campaign Performance	DTC Subscription, Consumer Services
Partner Efficiency Analysis	Lead Aggregators, Agencies, Broker Networks
Call Center Load Forecasting	Telesales-Driven Businesses
Second-Touch Optimization	Re-Marketing, Drip Campaign Providers
Marketing Efficiency Benchmarking	Any Acquisition or Growth Marketing Business