If you’re selling Vehicle Service Contracts (VSCs) directly to consumers, you’re operating in a high-cancel environment. Many marketers see 40–80% of contracts cancel, and flat cancels—those within 30 days—are especially painful. They erase margin, trigger chargebacks, and undermine performance metrics.

But not all cancellations are created equal.

Contracts that cancel later are far more profitable. The key is knowing which campaigns, terms, and lead sources are producing those better-behaved customers. That’s where Experience Curves come in.

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What Is a Cancellation Experience Curve?

An Experience Curve maps cancellations over time, showing you how contracts behave month by month after origination. It’s a living view of customer behavior, filtered by any variable in your dataset—down payment, payment term, lead source, finance partner, and more.

Rather than looking at one flat cancellation rate, you can examine patterns:

• Are customers with higher down payments staying longer?
• Are certain sales cohorts (vintages) improving over time?
• Do longer payment terms correlate with lower early churn?

It’s the difference between knowing that something’s wrong and knowing why.

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Key Questions You Can Finally Answer

With the Dark Sky Data Experience Curve tool, you can stop guessing and start quantifying:

• Down Payment Does a $200 down payment reduce early cancellations compared to $0 down?
• Vintage Are contracts sold in early 2024 performing better than those from late 2023?
• Lead Provider Are Lead Provider A leads canceling faster than Lead Provider CC? Are any lead sources worth the premium price?
• Payment Term Do 60-month payment terms retain better than 24-month terms?
• Finance Company Are they reserving at the right level—or overreserving and benefiting from your lack of visibility?

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You Can’t Negotiate What You Can’t See

Your finance partner controls your reserves. You’re incredibly dependent on your lead providers. If you don’t understand the behavior of your own contracts, you’re operating from a position of weakness—and others will make decisions that benefit them, not you.

An Experience Curve puts that power back in your hands. It gives you the evidence to push back on reserve levels, renegotiate underperforming lead contracts, and double down on campaigns that are working.

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From Static Spreadsheets to Instant Insight

Manual analysis in Excel can’t keep up with the complexity of real-world VSC data. Too many rows. Too many filters. Too much time.

Our Experience Curve tool does it instantly:

1. Upload your file (CSV or Excel)
2. Choose your filters (Down Payment, Vintage, Lead Source, etc.)
3. Get a clean, visual breakdown of how contracts cancel over time

It’s like putting X-ray glasses on your CRM.

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Stop Guessing. Know.

You’re spending real dollars to acquire customers. You deserve to know which ones stick, which ones cancel, and why. With Experience Curves, the answer isn’t buried in a spreadsheet—it’s right in front of you.