Issue No. 13 | June 30, 2026

Intelligence for F&I agents, administrators, and dealership finance professionals.

Recommended reading before the desk: What the War in Iran Means for DTC and Dealership Marketers. The May CPI confirmation and June FOMC decision make the inflation timeline from that earlier analysis concrete for F&I.

THE VEHICLE MARKET NUMBER: +44%

BLS motor vehicle repair CPI is up 43.6% since January 2019, including a 9.02% increase in 2025 alone. At the same time, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting on June 17, Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC as chair. It also raised the median year-end rate projection from 3.4% to 3.8%, with nine committee members now backing at least one more hike before year-end. May CPI came in at 4.2% year over year, the highest reading since April 2023. Rates were supposed to come down by now. They did not.

The inflation path following the Iran conflict has, so far, followed the persistent rather than temporary scenario outlined earlier this year. Repair costs are now 43.6% higher than they were in January 2019. The consumer arriving at your desk has already absorbed that reality everywhere else in the household budget before the F&I conversation even begins.

THE F&I ANGLE

The economic case for VSC is stronger than it has been in years. Closing the deal has rarely been harder.

The buyer at your desk already knows repairs are expensive. That is not your close. The payment-sensitive consumer in a 3.50–3.75% rate environment responds to monthly cost math, not headline exposure. BLS data shows the average unplanned repair event now exceeds $900.

The challenge is deal structure. Rates were supposed to have come down by now, and they did not. The consumer at your desk is already stretched on a payment built for a rate environment that never arrived. The VSC add lands differently on a deal where the buyer is at their limit. F&I teams that frame the discussion around total ownership cost rather than sticker price, and anchor the VSC conversation in current repair-cost data rather than abstract risk, may find that comparison easier for buyers to evaluate.

The 2026 environment should be a strong demand environment for F&I protection products due to inflation. Consumers cannot easily absorb a surprise repair. That gap between what they know and a funded VSC contract is where the F&I conversation matters most.

FROM THE BLOG

What the War in Iran Means for DTC and Dealership Marketers

Earlier this year, we examined how an Iran-driven inflation shock could move through oil markets into repair costs, consumer prices, and the dealership F&I environment. The May CPI and June FOMC data suggest the persistent Stage 3 path outlined in that analysis is now becoming the operating environment.

THE DESK STAT

Motor vehicle repair CPI rose 9.02% in 2025 alone. BLS data shows the average unplanned repair event now exceeds $900. At $29/month on a 36-month VSC term, the consumer’s total cost is $1,044, for coverage on a repair that can arrive as a single invoice at more than that amount. Is that math on your close sheet this week?

Until next Tuesday,

Reply here and tell me what’s working in your VSC close right now, and what isn’t. I read every response.